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Local Economy Not So Bad, Experts Say

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By YVETTE C. HAMMETT, The Tampa Tribune

Published: February 9, 2008

PALM RIVER - The Tampa Bay area may or may not be in a recession, but overall, it's in better shape than the country as a whole, experts told local business owners Tuesday.

Hillsborough County economist Kevin R. Brickey and Tampa Bay Partnership's Larry Henson presented the annual economic forecast to members of the Greater Brandon Chamber of Commerce during a luncheon meeting at Harris Hall.

"Job growth in 2007 is actually ahead of 2006, in spite of all the dire things you've heard," Henson told the crowd. "There's a lot of bad news in construction, manufacturing and transportation. But still, more jobs have been created overall."

The region's unemployment rate peaked in December at 4.9 percent, which could be a sign of recession, Brickey said. "Nobody really knows," he said, adding that many economists typically won't make a prediction until a recession is nearly over.

The bad news seems worse, Henson said, because the region experienced such an enormous spike in growth in 2004 and 2005. For a period of 10 years, 40,100 jobs were created in the Tampa Bay region annually, Brickey said.

In 2007, about 22,000 jobs were created. That number would be great in other parts of the country, Henson said.

"Virtually all of this can be accounted for in what is going on in the housing market," he said. "It affects numerous sectors, including retail. Home purchasing drives a lot of other things in the economy."

"We're 54 percent below the 2005 peak" for housing permits, Brickey said. But the bad news now will translate into good news later, with more affordable houses, he said. And with fewer permits being pulled for new construction, consumers will whittle the stock of available homes.

Henson noted that commercial real estate is holding its own.

"It hasn't taken nearly as big a hit as residential real estate," he said.

Although unemployment is high for this region, we're still below the national unemployment rate, if barely, Brickey said. The number of jobs here is still at an all-time high, at 1.34 million, he said.

Reporter Yvette C. Hammett can be reached at (813) 657-4532 or at yhammett@tampatrib.com.

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